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leagues calibrated
A pricing engine, not a tipster
FootyEdge prices every match itself. Dixon-Coles Poisson with per-league rho, decayed form and dynamic home advantage produce true probabilities for 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS.
TODAY · SIGNAL
Girona — BetisOver 2.5
price 2.10+14.2% edge
OVER 2.5 · TOP TEAMS
Bayern86%
Girona79%
Toulouse71%
KELLY STAKE
1.8uof bankroll
▮ FOOTBALL ANALYTICS
Football, powered
by data.
FootyEdge prices every match with its own statistical engine and surfaces the signals that matter — every day, across 29 leagues.
🤖AI ANALYSISReal injuries, form and team context
▮ LALIGA · 6 SIGNALS · ▮ BUNDESLIGA · EDGE +11.8% · ▮ SERIE A · OVER 2.5 HOT · ▮ EREDIVISIE · BTTS 67% HR · ▮ PREMIER · 4 SIGNALS · ▮ LIGUE 1 · DRAW SIGNAL · ▮ ÚRVALSDEILD · NEW LEAGUE ▮ LALIGA · 6 SIGNALS · ▮ BUNDESLIGA · EDGE +11.8% · ▮ SERIE A · OVER 2.5 HOT · ▮ EREDIVISIE · BTTS 67% HR · ▮ PREMIER · 4 SIGNALS · ▮ LIGUE 1 · DRAW SIGNAL · ▮ ÚRVALSDEILD · NEW LEAGUE
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01 · THE MODEL
Dixon-Coles under the hood
A Poisson goal model with dynamic home advantage, temporal decay and per-league calibration — tuned independently across 29 leagues.
footyedge.app — live board
P(goals) · λ_home 1.62 · λ_away 1.14 · ρ −0.08
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TODAY · VALUE BOARD
Girona vs BetisOver 2.5+14.2% edge
Twente vs AZBTTS+11.8% edge
Mainz vs KölnDraw+10.4% edge
RANKINGS · OVER 2.5 % · TOTAL
1. Bayern86%
2. Girona79%
3. Toulouse71%
4. Como66%
🤖 AI ANALYSIS · LIVE WEB CONTEXT
→ Scanning injury reports…
→ Home side missing first-choice CB pairing
→ Away xG trend up 0.4 over last 5
✓ Model edge confirmed: Over 2.5 (+12%)
EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 · EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 · EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 · EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 · EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 · EDGE+ · SIGNAL · DATA · 29 LEAGUES · DIXON-COLES · BTTS · OVER 2.5 ·
▮ THE PRODUCT
Find the signal.
Before the market does.
EV+
only positive-signal picks
Signals surfaced daily
Model prices meet market prices every morning. Anything trading above its fair probability is flagged with its statistical edge — filtered by per-market thresholds so noise stays out.
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matches of history
Rankings & filters
Per-team market stats across three seasons of history. Sort any league by Over 2.5 rate, BTTS, home splits — then filter fixtures that match your pattern.
$1.39
per report, cached forever
AI match analysis
One tap unlocks a narrative report for any fixture: current injuries, tactical context and news pulled from the live web, reconciled with the model’s numbers.
Optional — Pro and Elite plans include a few free reports each month.
▮ PRICING
Choose your plan
FREE
$0forever
- ✓3 daily signals (Over 1.5)
- ✓Full match analysis
- ✓League standings
- ✓Confirmed lineups
- ✓Match table with probabilities
- ✗H2H and team form
- ✗Over 2.5 / BTTS / 1X2 signals
- ✗Bankroll Advisor
- ✗AI match analyses
PRO
$9.99/mo
- ✓Top 8 signals (all markets)
- ✓Full BTTS + Overs
- ✓Complete table with all %
- ✓H2H, Form, Injuries, Lineups
- ✓Team comparator
- ✓Bankroll Advisor
- ✓Most likely scorelines
- ✓Full live matches
- ✓3 AI match analyses / month
- ✗Value Radar
- ✗Early Line Hunter
ELITE
$16.99/mo
- ✓Everything in Pro
- ✓Top 20 daily signals
- ✓🎯 Value Radar — market inefficiency scanner
- ✓⚡ Early Line Hunter — detect value early
- ✓10 AI match analyses / month
- ✓Custom favorite leagues
- ✓Advanced match stats (xG, shots, corners)
- ✓Priority support
The board resets
every morning.
Fresh signals across 29 leagues, priced before you've had coffee. Free to start.
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